2006 Governor · AL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 54%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.57% · Republican 57.45%
R+15.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 54 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 41.573 − 57.448 = -15.875
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-15.875) = 0.875
- Absolute miss = |0.875| = 0.875
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55116, race ID 1328 (538 database).