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2006 Governor · AL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 58%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.57% · Republican 57.45%

R+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 58 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.573 − 57.448 = -15.875
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.875) = -0.125
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.125| = 0.125

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55117, race ID 1328 (538 database).