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2006 Governor · AR

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 48.2%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 48.2 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (14.939) = -17.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.838| = 17.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55139, race ID 1329 (538 database).