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2006 Governor · AR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.939) = -2.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.938| = 2.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55140, race ID 1329 (538 database).