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2006 Governor · AR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 549 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (14.939) = -5.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.938| = 5.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55141, race ID 1329 (538 database).