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2006 Governor · AZ

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 644 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 42.7%

D+8.6

The certified result

Democrat 62.59% · Republican 35.44%

D+27.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 42.7 = 8.60
  2. Actual margin = 62.585 − 35.440 = 27.145
  3. Signed miss = 8.60 − (27.145) = -18.545
  4. Absolute miss = |-18.545| = 18.545

The poll overstated the Republican by 18.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55159, race ID 1330 (538 database).