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2006 House · CO-5

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 47%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.35% · Republican 59.62%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 47 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.352 − 59.618 = -19.266
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-19.266) = 12.266
  4. Absolute miss = |12.266| = 12.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55223, race ID 3667 (538 database).