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2006 Governor · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 583 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 46.6%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 56.98% · Republican 40.16%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 46.6 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 56.985 − 40.165 = 16.820
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (16.820) = -17.020
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.020| = 17.020

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55224, race ID 1332 (538 database).