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2006 Governor · CO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 35%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.98% · Republican 40.16%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 35 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.985 − 40.165 = 16.820
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (16.820) = 5.180
  4. Absolute miss = |5.180| = 5.180

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55226, race ID 1332 (538 database).