Skip to content

2006 Governor · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 64%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.45% · Republican 63.20%

R+27.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 64 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.446 − 63.202 = -27.756
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-27.756) = -4.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.244| = 4.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55248, race ID 1333 (538 database).