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2006 Governor · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.073) = 2.073
  4. Absolute miss = |2.073| = 2.073

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55278, race ID 1334 (538 database).