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2006 Governor · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 952 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.1% · Republican 49.9%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.1 − 49.9 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (-7.073) = 2.273
  4. Absolute miss = |2.273| = 2.273

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55283, race ID 1334 (538 database).