2006 Governor · GA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 53%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.22% · Republican 57.95%
R+19.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 38.218 − 57.946 = -19.728
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-19.728) = 2.728
- Absolute miss = |2.728| = 2.728
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55313, race ID 1335 (538 database).