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2006 Governor · ID

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.11% · Republican 52.67%

R+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.106 − 52.666 = -8.560
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.560) = 7.560
  4. Absolute miss = |7.560| = 7.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55337, race ID 1338 (538 database).