Skip to content

2006 House · ID-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 314 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 39%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.37% · Republican 50.57%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 39 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.368 − 50.566 = -5.198
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.198) = 3.198
  4. Absolute miss = |3.198| = 3.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55337, race ID 3716 (538 database).