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2006 Governor · IL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 583 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.6% · Republican 33%

D+6.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 39.26%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.6 − 33 = 6.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.795 − 39.261 = 10.534
  3. Signed miss = 6.60 − (10.534) = -3.935
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.935| = 3.935

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55361, race ID 1339 (538 database).