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2006 Governor · IL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 39%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 39.26%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 39 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.795 − 39.261 = 10.534
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (10.534) = 11.465
  4. Absolute miss = |11.465| = 11.465

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55365, race ID 1339 (538 database).