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2006 Governor · MD

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 644 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 43.9%

D+5.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.69% · Republican 46.16%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 43.9 = 5.40
  2. Actual margin = 52.691 − 46.159 = 6.532
  3. Signed miss = 5.40 − (6.532) = -1.132
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.132| = 1.132

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55437, race ID 1342 (538 database).