2006 Governor · ME
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 31%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.11% · Republican 30.21%
D+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 31 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 38.109 − 30.212 = 7.897
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.897) = 6.103
- Absolute miss = |6.103| = 6.103
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55459, race ID 1343 (538 database).