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2006 Governor · ME

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 638 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 30%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.11% · Republican 30.21%

D+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 30 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.109 − 30.212 = 7.897
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (7.897) = -1.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.897| = 1.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55460, race ID 1343 (538 database).