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2006 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 641 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 74% · Republican 18%

D+56.0

The certified result

Democrat 74.02% · Republican 25.83%

D+48.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 74 − 18 = 56.00
  2. Actual margin = 74.016 − 25.828 = 48.188
  3. Signed miss = 56.00 − (48.188) = 7.812
  4. Absolute miss = |7.812| = 7.812

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55551, race ID 1347 (538 database).