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2006 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 331 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.27% · Republican 48.65%

D+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.274 − 48.645 = 2.629
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (2.629) = -11.630
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.630| = 11.630

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55551, race ID 3832 (538 database).