Skip to content

2006 Governor · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 46.6%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 47.93%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 46.6 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 47.926 = -4.006
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (-4.006) = 4.906
  4. Absolute miss = |4.906| = 4.906

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55566, race ID 1349 (538 database).