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2006 Senate · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.8% · Republican 58.3%

R+21.5

The certified result

Democrat 40.99% · Republican 55.36%

R+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.8 − 58.3 = -21.50
  2. Actual margin = 40.990 − 55.358 = -14.368
  3. Signed miss = -21.50 − (-14.368) = -7.132
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.132| = 7.132

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55566, race ID 1597 (538 database).