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2006 Senate · NY

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 952 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57.3% · Republican 33%

D+24.3

The certified result

Democrat 57.42% · Republican 25.80%

D+31.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57.3 − 33 = 24.30
  2. Actual margin = 57.416 − 25.803 = 31.613
  3. Signed miss = 24.30 − (31.613) = -7.313
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.313| = 7.313

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55595, race ID 1600 (538 database).