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2006 Governor · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.8% · Republican 43.3%

D+7.5

The certified result

Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.8 − 43.3 = 7.50
  2. Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
  3. Signed miss = 7.50 − (23.893) = -16.392
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.392| = 16.392

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55628, race ID 1351 (538 database).