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2006 Governor · SC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 57%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.79% · Republican 55.12%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 57 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.789 − 55.118 = -10.329
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-10.329) = -12.671
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.671| = 12.671

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55743, race ID 1355 (538 database).