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2006 Governor · SC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 485 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 57%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.79% · Republican 55.12%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 57 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.789 − 55.118 = -10.329
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-10.329) = -6.671
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.671| = 6.671

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55745, race ID 1355 (538 database).