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2018 House · CA-45

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.05% · Republican 47.95%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.051 − 47.949 = 4.102
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (4.102) = -8.102
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.102| = 8.102

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56305, race ID 232 (538 database).