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2018 House · PA-7

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 411 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 43.47%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.488 − 43.469 = 10.019
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.019) = -3.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.019| = 3.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56315, race ID 497 (538 database).