Skip to content

2018 Senate · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 41%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.97% · Republican 42.35%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 41 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.971 − 42.351 = 10.620
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.620) = -4.619
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.619| = 4.619

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56330, race ID 129 (538 database).