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2018 Governor · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.84% · Republican 42.43%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.844 − 42.427 = 11.417
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.417) = -5.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.417| = 5.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56330, race ID 149 (538 database).