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2018 Senate · FL

SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2018-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.123) = -1.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.877| = 1.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56335, race ID 100 (538 database).