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2018 Senate · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 1,575 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 48.6%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 48.6 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (-0.123) = -0.177
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.177| = 0.177

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56344, race ID 100 (538 database).