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2018 Governor · CA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 671 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.1% · Republican 32.2%

D+19.9

The certified result

Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.1 − 32.2 = 19.90
  2. Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
  3. Signed miss = 19.90 − (23.898) = -3.997
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.997| = 3.997

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56345, race ID 135 (538 database).