Skip to content

2018 House · FL-15

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 1,369 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 47%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.98% · Republican 53.02%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 47 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.976 − 53.017 = -6.041
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-6.041) = 0.041
  4. Absolute miss = |0.041| = 0.041

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56350, race ID 268 (538 database).