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2018 Governor · FL

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 2,200 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-0.395) = -2.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.605| = 2.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56360, race ID 138 (538 database).