2018 Senate · MI
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 605 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 41%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%
D+6.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (6.506) = 0.494
- Absolute miss = |0.494| = 0.494
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56379, race ID 106 (538 database).