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2018 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 824 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 48.4 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (-1.389) = 0.689
  4. Absolute miss = |0.689| = 0.689

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56380, race ID 139 (538 database).