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2018 House · TX-21

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2018-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.63% · Republican 50.24%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.628 − 50.239 = -2.611
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-2.611) = -9.389
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.389| = 9.389

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56384, race ID 548 (538 database).