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2018 Governor · KS

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 698 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 41%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.03% · Republican 42.96%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 41 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.028 − 42.957 = 5.071
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.071) = -5.071
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.071| = 5.071

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56392, race ID 144 (538 database).