Skip to content

2018 Senate · NV

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Online Panel/Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 46.9%

R+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 46.9 = -5.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = -5.70 − (5.027) = -10.727
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.727| = 10.727

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56414, race ID 112 (538 database).