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2018 Governor · NV

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Online Panel/Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 46%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 46 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (4.084) = -8.884
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.884| = 8.884

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56414, race ID 151 (538 database).