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2018 Governor · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 989 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 38%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 38 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (23.898) = -12.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.897| = 12.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56451, race ID 135 (538 database).