2018 Governor · MI
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 906 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 36%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%
D+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 36 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.567) = 1.433
- Absolute miss = |1.433| = 1.433
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56453, race ID 148 (538 database).