Skip to content

2018 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 927 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.568) = -3.433
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.433| = 3.433

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56481, race ID 121 (538 database).