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2018 Governor · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 927 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 56%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.51% · Republican 55.81%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 56 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.508 − 55.807 = -13.299
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-13.299) = -5.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.701| = 5.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56481, race ID 163 (538 database).