Skip to content

2018 Governor · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 52%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-14.160) = 3.161
  4. Absolute miss = |3.161| = 3.161

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56497, race ID 133 (538 database).