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2018 Senate · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 991 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-0.123) = 0.123
  4. Absolute miss = |0.123| = 0.123

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56498, race ID 100 (538 database).