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2018 Senate · MI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 822 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 42.5%

D+9.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 42.5 = 9.40
  2. Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
  3. Signed miss = 9.40 − (6.506) = 2.894
  4. Absolute miss = |2.894| = 2.894

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56507, race ID 106 (538 database).